Update on COVID-19 Situation and Vaccination Efforts in Latin America
As of late March 2021, Latin America and the Caribbean reported approximately 24.5 million (from the global total of about 127 million) confirmed COVID-19 cases (equivalent to approximately 3.8% of the total population of the region), and around 770,000 deaths (from the global total of nearly 2.8 million) since the first confirmed case in the region on February 26, 2020.[1]
While many countries in the region have started vaccinations, some as early as December 2020, Brazil in particular continues to see high numbers of more than half a million new cases per week. The World Health Organization reports that the COVID-19 situation in Brazil continues to escalate, whose 13 million cases and over 300,000 deaths are second highest in the world behind only the United States (with about 30 million confirmed cases and nearly 550,000 deaths).[2]
Latin America has worked diligently to secure the various vaccines available to date, and as of March 19, 2021, 20 countries are reported as having authorized emergency use of COVID-19 vaccines: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay and Venezuela. Some are even developing and testing vaccines of their own.[3]
Despite such efforts and the steady increase in the number of vaccines administered in the region (25.5% increase from March 15 to 21 and 24.5% increase from March 22 to 29, 2021), with the exception of Chile (that ranks third in the world of most vaccines applied per 100 people, only behind Israel and the UAE, and 30% of its population of 19 million has already been vaccinated), the overall vaccination rate remains low in Latin America as a whole:
Chile began vaccinations on February 3 and with agreements in place for 78 million doses, plans to reach 15 million people vaccinated by the end of the first semester of 2021.[7] However, despite such early success, as of late March 2021, Chile has undergone a partial quarantine in parts of the country due to the recent surge in confirmed cases.[8]
In contrast, Brazil, despite having entered into vaccine agreements with pharmaceutical companies to secure delivery of 562 million doses in 2021 (which should more than cover its population of around 215 million), it has received just about 17 million doses so far. As of late March 2021, 11.5 million vaccines had been administered in Brazil since January 2021, while only 3.6 million received the second dose. [9]
Mexico, the second largest country in the region with around 126 million people, which reported approximately 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 (the third highest in the world, and equivalent to about 9% of Mexico’s confirmed cases), has reached agreements to receive more than 232 million doses. However, as of March 2021, only 5.7 million people have reportedly been vaccinated in Mexico, accounting for mere 4.5% of its population, despite having started vaccinations in December of 2020.[10]
Colombia, with a total population of about 50 million, has reported more than 2.3 million cases and around 62,000 deaths as of March 2021. Having started vaccinations in February, Colombia has received 3.5 million doses and vaccinated 1.3 million thus far. Colombia is expected to receive an additional 20 million doses from COVAX and plans to vaccinate 35 million people in 2021.[11]
The situation is not dissimilar in the case of Peru, which reported about 1.5 million cases and 50,000 deaths of its 32.5 million total population as of March 2021. Peru has entered into agreements for approximately 116 million doses. Vaccinations began on February 10, 2021, and more than 700,000 people have been vaccinated.[12]
Argentina is slightly ahead in the race in comparison, having started its vaccination campaign in December of 2020 and vaccinated over 2.7 million people already. Argentina has agreements to receive approximately 66.5 million doses to cover its population of around 45 million. As of March 2021, Argentina reported nearly 2.3 million confirmed cases and 55,000 deaths. [13]
Despite the ongoing efforts, considering the current vaccination rate and the rise of new cases including of new variants, there is no clear prediction of when “herd immunity” might be reached in the region (as compared to the widespread opinion that it might be reached around November of 2021 in Korea).
Economic Outlook for Korea in Latin America in 2021
In January 2021, the IMF estimated that in 2020 the global economy contracted by 3.5%, but predicted a positive 5.5% growth projection for 2021. Latin America, however, was hit harder with a 7.4% contraction estimate and the growth projection was more modest at 4.1%. [14]
In terms of trade volumes for 2021, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected falls of 13% and 20%, respectively, in the value of regional exports and imports of goods.[15]
Comparatively, concerning trade volumes between Korea and Latin America, imports to Korea decreased just slightly from 2019 to 2020, barely 0.6% from USD 20.1 billion to 19.98 billion, but exports from Korea decreased by more than 30% from USD 25.7 billion to 17.9 billion.[16] This is reflective of the fact that while countries in Latin America have been heavily affected economically by the pandemic, according to the OECD, Korea is the member the least affected with its nominal GDP ranking having moved up from the 12th place in 2019 (with USD 1.63 trillion) to the 9th in 2020 (with USD 1.54 trillion).
It is noteworthy, however, that in 2020, Samsung Electronics Co. further expanded its presence in the Latin American smartphone market, which accounted for more than 40% of smartphone shipments in Latin America last year, up from 38% in 2019. Samsung remains the region’s largest smartphone vendor holding almost 50% of Brazil’s market share.[17]
Concerning trade between Korea and Latin America, Korea’s Trade Ministry is pursuing an active agenda to expand trade volumes and free trade areas. In January 2021, the Trade Minister vowed to make more progress in expanding trade pacts with Latin America. In this vein, the Trade Ministry held a conference in January 2021 with other ministries to evaluate the current Korea-Latin America trade environment. [18]
With Free Trade Agreements already in place with Chile, Peru, Colombia and five Central American states (Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras), Korea continues to pursue a deal with MERCOSUR (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Venezuela)[19] and an associate membership with the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) which would imply a trade deal with Mexico. A deal with MERCOSUR and the accession to the Pacific Alliance would significantly expand Korea’s free trade zone in an area in Latin America which is comprised of more than 90% of its population and accounts for most of its total GDP.[20]
Separately, in March 2021, Korea has agreed to expand a joint-loan facility program with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to support joint development of infrastructure projects in Latin America while sharing operating costs.[21] The IDB membership (which Korea joined in 2005 as a non-regional non-borrowing member country) enables Korean companies to participate in IDB-financed projects.
Also via the IDB, during the pandemic, Korea contributed USD 53 million for COVID-19 responses in Latin America,[22] in addition to bilateral donations of testing kits and other related materials and equipment, as well as financial aid to combat COVID-19.
BKL IN LATIN AMERICA
Bae, Kim & Lee, LLC (“BKL”) is the only top major Korean law firm with an established Latin America Task Force Team (LATFT) which consists of attorneys with vast experience, cultural and legal knowledge, key local contacts, and native fluency in Spanish and Portuguese that no other law firm in Korea can offer. Our key LATFT attorneys have vast experience in the region after having undertaken on important projects relating to construction, joint-ventures, project finance, mergers and acquisitions, dispute resolution (arbitration/litigation), and tax and other regulatory matters. In addition, our key attorneys have actually lived in Latin America and worked at top law firms in Brazil and Mexico, thus also being able to provide valuable and difference-making advice on important cultural insights and differences that no other law firm in Korea can offer.
Moreover, BKL has a long track record of having represented major Korean companies throughout the entire region with approximately 50 transactions just in the past eight (8) years. Major clients represented by our attorneys in Latin America include Hyundai Motors, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Engineering, Samsung C&T, POSCO, Doosan Infracore, Dongkuk Steel, Mobis, Dymos, LG Electronics, KEPCO, KT&G, Hyundai Rotem, Hyundai Elevator, KDB, Hankook Tire, Mirae Asset, HMM, KORAIL, and CJ, among many others.
Some of the notable projects undertaken by our attorneys include the establishment of Hyundai Motors’ first major car factory in Brazil as well as a major “suppliers park” consisting of Mobis, Dymos, Hysco, and Hwashin, among many others; and the acquisition of Ingresoll Rand’s Bobcat construction equipment division in Brazil by Doosan Infracore, just to mention a few.[23]
BKL is a member of World Law Group – WLG (an invitation-only global network of top independent full-service law firms established in 1988), to which renowned firms around the world belong, including leading firms in Latin America, with whom BKL has collaborated in the past on several landmark projects.
Mr. Cho has vast experience in the region, having undertaken major landmark projects in Latin America during his 23-year career as a lawyer. Most notably, he has led Hyundai Motors and its many Korean suppliers in the establishment of a world-class automobile factory in Brazil. He has also led many other projects and acquisitions in the region including Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, and Panama, among others. He is the only attorney in Korea who was a partner at top “magic circle” Brazilian law firm, having represented major Korean, US and European multinational companies in the region with foreign-direct investments, joint ventures, mergers and acquisitions, dispute resolution, and compliance/crisis management. While Mr. Cho is a US New York-qualified attorney, he has lived a number of years in South America and is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.
Having been raised in Mexico, Ms. Lee is a native Spanish speaker. She obtained her law degree from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and is licensed to practice law in Mexico, in addition to the State of New York. She participated in diverse types of transactions in the region during her time at top-tier law firms in Mexico City, and New York (where she focused on transactions in Latin America, including in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Uruguay, and Mexico). Ms. Lee’s exposure to the region expanded working as a legal specialist at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC. She currently concentrates her practice on international arbitration, and has experience with disputes involving projects and investment in Latin America, having acted as Tribunal Secretary to various Arbitral Tribunals in both commercial disputes and Investor-State Arbitrations while at the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101643/latin-america-caribbean-coronavirus-cases/; https://covid19.who.int/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=ZJ; https://www.as-coa.org/articles/timeline-tracking-latin-americas-road-vaccination; https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103965/latin-america-caribbean-coronavirus-deaths/
[2] https://covid19.who.int/table; https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/covid/
[3] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/covid-19-vaccine-tracker-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/; https://www.as-coa.org/articles/timeline-tracking-latin-americas-road-vaccination
[4] https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2021-03-22%20Weekly%20Situation%20Update%2015-21%20March%202021.pdf; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2021-03-29%20Weekly%20Situation%20Update%2022-28%20March%202021.pdf
[5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/covid-19-vaccination-moves-slowly-in-latin-america/2188034#; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=CL; https://www.vox.com/22309620/chile-covid-19-vaccination-campaign
[6] United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Weekly Situation Updates: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2021-03-29%20Weekly%20Situation%20Update%2022-28%20March%202021.pdf
[7] https://www.vox.com/22309620/chile-covid-19-vaccination-campaign
[8] Unless otherwise specified, country-specific information is from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/covid-19-vaccination-moves-slowly-in-latin-america/2188034#
[9] Most vaccines being made available in the region require two doses, with the exception of Johnson & Johnson and CanSino: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/timeline-tracking-latin-americas-road-vaccination
[10] https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-03-24/mexico-to-speed-up-vaccine-rollout-fearing-risk-of-new-covid-19-wave; https://www.inegi.org.mx/programas/ccpv/2020/
[11] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=CO
[12] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=PE-BO
[13] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=AR
[14] https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/01/26/2021-world-economic-outlook-update
[15] Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean, 2020 (LC/PUB.2020/21-P), Santiago, 2021. p. 11 (available at: https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/46614/1/S2000804_en.pdf)
[16] https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/brd/m_5661/view.do?seq=318945&srchFr=&srchTo=&srchWord=&srchTp=&multi_itm_seq=0&itm_seq_1=0&itm_seq_2=0&company_cd=&company_nm=&page=1&titleN
[17] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210303002500320
[18] https://www.bilaterals.org/?s-korea-vows-to-speed-up-trade; https://fta.go.kr/main/situation/kfta/lov1/mercosur/5/1/
[19] Venezuela is a Member State of MERCOSUR but its membership has been suspended since 2016. See https://www.mercosur.int/en/about-mercosur/mercosur-countries.
[20] Korea’s accession to the Pacific Alliance had been under discussion since March 2017 and negotiations had commenced in September 2019. https://news.kotra.or.kr/user/globalBbs/kotranews/788/globalBbsDataView.do?setIdx=252&dataIdx=186764&pageViewType=&column=&search=&searchAreaCd=&searchNationCd=&searchTradeCd=&searchStartDate=&searchEndDate=&searchCategoryIdxs=&searchIndustryCateIdx=&searchItemCode=&searchItemName=&page=9&row=10; https://fta.go.kr/main/situation/kfta/lov7/pa/1/.
[21] https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20210319003800320; https://www.iadb.org/en/news/korea-and-idb-group-renew-and-expand-co-financing-facility-500m
[22] https://donortracker.org/South-Korea-US%2453million-COVID-19-response-LatinAmerica-IAD-Bank; http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200518000193
[23] https://www.theworldlawgroup.com/member-firms.