The recent 22nd general election in Korea concluded on April 10, marked significant victories for the opposition parties, such as the Democratic Party and Rebuilding Korea Party. These election outcomes are expected to bring many changes to the political landscape and government policies in Korea. With President Yoon Suk Yeol entering his third year in the office, the control over government affairs is anticipated to experience a weakening, potentially dampening the momentum of policies driven by his administration. Conversely, this is expected to invigorate policies and legislations, including the election manifestos, proposed by the opposition parties.
We have analyzed the 22nd general election results in Korea and assessed the feasibility of the main election manifestos.
I. CHANGES IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE POST- ELECTION
1. Shift in Seats in the National Assembly
1) Seat allocations in the 21st National Assembly[1] (297 enrolled seats as of April 10, 2024)
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101 seats for the People Power Party, 13 seats for the People Future Party, 4 seats for the Reform Party, 142 seats for the Democratic Party of Korea, 14 seats for the Democratic Coalition, 1 seat for the Rebuilding Korea Party, 6 seats for the Green Justice Party, 5 seats for the New Future Party, 1 seat for the Liberty Unification Party, 1 seat for the Progressive Party, 9 seats for the non-partisan politicians
2) Seat allocations in the 22nd National Assembly following the election results (300 enrolled seats)
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90 seats for the People Power Party, 18 seats for the People Future Party, 3 seats for the Reform Party, 161 seats for the Democratic Party of Korea, 14 seats for the Democratic Coalition, 12 seats for the Rebuilding Korea Party, 1 seat for the New Future Party, 1 seat for the Progressive Party
2. Required Quorum for Each Legislative Powers and the Prospect of the 22nd National Assembly
1) Required Quorum under the Constitution and the National Assembly Act
2) The Prospect of the 22nd National Assembly
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A decisive win for the opposition party would serve as a midterm referendum on President Yoon Seok Yeol’s leadership, posing significant challenges to his administration.
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The ongoing power struggle between the executive and legislative branches is likely to continue, leading to constant clashes between these branches in managing government affairs. This will inevitably result in a loss of consistency and momentum in the policymaking process and implementation.
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Government initiatives or policies requiring legislative consent will face hurdles in garnering support from the opposition parties.
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Boosted by its majority, the opposition party will continue to hold tight control over the key agendas, such as impeachment, special prosecutor investigation, dismissal, annual audit or investigation of government affairs.
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The opposition parties can jointly pass bills that require approval from at least 3/5 of the enrolled Members. The President is anticipated to face even more burden in practicing his veto power with the increased seats of the opposition parties in the 22nd National Assembly.
⇒ Following this election, the opposition parties will be empowered to take control of special prosecutors’ investigations and annual audit of government affairs. Also, initiatives spearheaded by the opposition parties in the 21st National Assembly, such as the Grain Management Act, Nurse Act, Special Act on the Truthful Investigation and Recurrence Prevention of Itaewon Disaster and the Protection of the Victims' Rights, are expected to be reintroduced and prioritized.
The 22nd National Assembly is posed to bolster its oversight over government initiatives in legislation, budgeting, personnel appointments, and policies. With the opposition parties focusing on fulfilling their own election promises throughout the 22nd National Assembly session, tensions between the opposition parties and Yoon’s administration and the ruling party are expected to escalate. The next presidential election, which will be held during this National Assembly term, is likely to exacerbate these conflicts.
II. POLICY OUTLOOK IN MAIN AREAS
Once the 22nd general session begins, the opposition parties’ election promises will take precedence with their majority control over the National Assembly. However, despite majority control, the opposition parties cannot lead the 22nd National Assembly unilaterally, particularly in drafting legislation. Also, collaboration with the government remains essential in putting the election promises into a policy. In light of these dynamics, we expect the main election promises will unfold as follows.
1. Possibility for the Policy Coordination on Common Manifestos
The following commitments were made by both the ruling and opposition parties and are likely to be implemented smoothly through coordinated efforts.
1) Underground railway construction and GTX development
2) Implementation of a price interlocking system for energy expenses, such as electricity and gas, if they surpass a certain percentage of the delivery price
3) Increase of the budget target for alleviate the burden of high interests on small businesses
4) Promotion of future industries, particularly providing full support to the semiconductor industry
5) Expansion of the climate response fund to address the climate crisis and increase of the portion of paid allocations in the emissions trading
2. Labor
The greatest disparities were observed in the parties’ stance in the labor sector throughout the campaign. It is anticipated that the election promises feasible for legislative changes are likely to make their ways into the Act, reflecting the opposition parties’ stance. However, election promises that require broader social consensus may take considerable time to be implemented, depending on the progress of discussions.
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Introduction of four (or four-and-a-half) day workweek
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Amendment of the Labor Standards Act to include prohibition on inclusive wage system
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Reinstatement of the Yellow Envelope Act[4] and expanded enforcement of the Serious Accidents Punishment Act
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Phased implementation of the National Workers’ Compensation Insurance for all citizens
3. Livelihoods
Both the ruling and opposition parties have emphasized their commitments to safeguard people’s livelihoods. But there are some differences in the specifics, which we expect to be the key issues in their policy-making process. The pace of implementing each election promise will depend on the nature of the issue, whether legislative, budgetary, or policy-related.
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Expanded issuance of the regional currency (Community-Based Gift Certificate)
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Introduction of a specialized bank for small businesses
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Enhancing the rent protection for small businesses and the self-employed
4. Energy
Reaching an agreement on the energy matters will take considerable time due to divergent party stances and social disagreements. While the government and ruling party advocate for increased use of nuclear power to solve energy issues, the opposition party holds a contrasting view. However, since there is an agreement on expanding the use of renewable energy, policies aiming to resolve the energy issues by promoting renewable energy are likely to be proposed.
5. Other Major Issues
1) Agendas suggested by the People Power Party during the election, such as reducing the inheritance and gift tax rates, abolishing the capital gains tax and postponing the implementation of the virtual asset income tax, are expected to lose momentum.
2) Instead, the opposition parties’ election promises to establish regulations for fair trade practices, including the improvement of unfair trade practices on online platforms and prevention of harms, would be prioritized as major legislative initiatives.
3) Despite the party discrepancies, there is consensus on the need to preemptively respond to global environmental regulations, such as ESG management and RE100. We expect vigorous discussions for enactment of the (tentatively named) Act to Support the Adoption and Expansion of ESG and the Carbon Neutral Industry Act (Korean version of the IRA).
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- (Total 300 seats as of 15 April 2020 from the 21st general election) 84 seats for the United Future Party, 19 seats for the Future Korea Party, 163 seats for the Democratic Party of Korea, 17 seats for the Citizen's Party of Korea, 6 seats for the Justice Party, 3 for the People's Party, 3 for the Open Democratic Party, 5 seats for the non-partisan politicians
- 1/3 of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must propose it and thereafter, 1/2 of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must vote in favor.
- 1) A quorum required for the impeachment of the President: ½ of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must propose it and thereafter, 2/3 of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must vote in favor. 2) A quorum required for other impeachments: 1/3 of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must propose it and thereafter, 1/2 of the enrolled Members of the National Assembly must vote in favor.
- The Amendments to Articles 2 and 3 of the Trade Union and Labor Relations Adjustment Act include two key provisions: (1) expanding of the scope of employers obligated to engage in bargaining in labor relations and broadening the scope of labor disputes, and (2) limiting employers’ claims for damages resulting from trade union strikes.